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April 18, 2011 / X_Y

Future of Flash:Personal Opinion

It’s a new era of internet, technology is changing, focus of development is changing, the once pioneer, Flash, seems to be overwhelmed by all the new technologies  springing toward future. Is Flash coming to an end of era? What’s the future of Flash, both in short run and long run?

Let’s have a look at today’s Flash industry. Generally there’re four areas Flash is fighting in: game, website, advertisement and applications. Games are hot but highly challenged (by Apple), websites are running into some strange conditions, advertisements are annoying, and applications, for the part I know, are also gradually replaced by HTML & javascript. The front line does not look optimistic.

Flash statistics, how will it change in the future?

A review of the history. When first introduced, Flash brought rich media into internet. It was the childhood of internet, everything was dull and childish as we see nowadays. What flash brought was a lively touch, fancy interactions and effects blended harmoniously (comparing to GIF) into the webpages. At the same time games, ads, multimedia are augmented by Flash, shaping a great part of the web 2.0 development.

However, with the virtues developing, so do the shortcomings. Ads are generally believed to be annoying. When it’s easier to make high quality ads, it’s rather easier to make low quality ones. When internet is flooded by these ads, flash is biased as “bad advertisements”, people tend to block all Flash content to prevent seeing low quality ads. Flash websites begin with low user interaction considerations. If you look into the award-winning Flash sites, you’ll find out that they’re all very fancy in graphics, effects but mostly hard to navigate and get the information you need. Game is one prominent usage area of Flash, it is still one of the better ways to experiment on new ideas, or even as final products. In the domain of webpage games they’re earning a hell lot of money (at least as shown on the price tags). Lacking of performance is one of their drawbacks, and as Apple doesn’t like Flash, Flash games are loosing a big market on mobile devices. Flash Applications seems to lose ground against the new HTML5 standard, the image viewers are more made in js than as, and they’re trying to replace the video players as well.

Have Talked so much about the darkness, it’s time to look into the bright side. Flash is still competitive, both in the short run and long run. Looking at the current situation, HTML5 is still in development, struggling to be a well-accepted standard. And as we all know, the web standard is always in chaos. HTML5 is maturing rather slowly, when it’s matured there’ll surely be a lot of backward compatibility problems, if you look into the IE6 dilemma developers are suffering nowadays, and surely the browsers will support features differently by then. It’s just impossible for all people to agree with each other, that’s the nature of human beings! Flash players don’t have the same problem, as it’s a united platform, everything runs in the same way on different browsers and machines. And I don’t think people will refuse to upgrade their flash players, new content can’t be seen with old players. So for our target audience (the ones accept flash content), they can always see a united image. Flash is still a better platform for conveying the same idea to everyone. So even if flash developers do nothing about HTML5, they can still survive a couple of years at least.

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One Comment

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  1. Gamesnjl / May 16 2011 11:03 pm

    cute! thank you.

    סוניקבאבלס

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